Cracking the Illusion: Are the Cardinals Truly Contenders or Just Pretenders?
When the St. Louis Cardinals took the field on Opening Day, the vision was clear. A storied franchise, with 11 World Series titles and a fanbase steeped in tradition, was expected to build on its proud heritage and fight tooth and nail for the top of the National League. But nearly four months into the 2025 season, the cracks in that polished surface have become gaping holes, particularly in the most unforgiving and scrutinized area of the modern game: starting pitching.
As the All-Star break fades into memory and the grueling second half sets in, one question lingers over Busch Stadium like a heavy summer cloud:
Can a team with the worst starting rotation in Major League Baseball still be considered a legitimate playoff contender?
The Numbers Don’t Lie — They Scream
In sports, there’s always room for optimism. But numbers have a way of silencing even the most hopeful of hearts. Since May 30, the Cardinals’ starting rotation has been an outright disaster. A collective ERA of 5.70 since that date leads the league — and not in the way any team hopes to.
Things have only worsened as summer’s heat has intensified. Since June 8, the starting ERA rose to 5.80. Since June 30, it exploded to 7.80, and in July, an almost unfathomable 7.48 ERA has left fans wondering if a complete collapse is underway.
For context, the worst teams in baseball often hover around a team ERA in the high 4s or low 5s. The Cardinals are trending toward historic ineptitude, and it’s happening with frightening consistency.
It’s not just about a lack of aces or an occasional blow-up start. It’s systemic. It’s happening every series, in every ballpark, against opponents both elite and average. This isn’t a slump. This is an identity crisis.
Early Knockouts Are the Norm
Legitimate contenders find ways to stay in games, even when they’re not at their best. But the Cardinals have developed an alarming trend: getting shelled early.
Over their last 15 games, they’ve lost 11. But the deeper issue is how they’ve been losing. In the first three innings alone, they’ve been outscored 49-18 — a margin so lopsided that it essentially removes all competitive tension before the fans have even settled into their seats.
Opponents are teeing off. In that same 15-game stretch, opposing hitters have posted a .327 average against Cardinals starters in the early innings, along with a slugging percentage of .679 — numbers that look more like batting practice than big-league battles. The rotation has yielded 17 home runs and holds a grotesque 9.00 ERA over those early frames.
Once again, this isn’t an isolated blip. It’s a pattern. A dangerous one.
The Faces of the Struggle
Veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright was once the beating heart of the Cardinals rotation — a warrior poet on the mound, mixing guts and guile in equal measure. But now, at 43, even he can’t defy time. Waino’s velocity is down, command is fading, and his ERA is ballooning. He’s tried everything — changing arm angles, mixing pitches — but the margin for error at this level is razor-thin, and hitters know it.
Behind him, the rotation lacks both consistency and upside. Steven Matz has shown flashes but remains injury-prone. Miles Mikolas has regressed into a mid-rotation liability. Promising youngsters like Matthew Liberatore haven’t seized the moment. Meanwhile, the bullpen, already overtaxed, is being forced into action as early as the second or third inning.
The result? A fractured staff that isn’t built for long-term success, let alone October baseball.
Contenders or Mirage?
So, back to the core question: Can a legitimate playoff team survive this kind of pitching?
Historically, the answer is a resounding no.
Even in the modern era, where offense is up and bullpen depth is king, no team has made a deep playoff run with a rotation this consistently porous. Offenses can carry a team only so far — and the Cardinals lineup, while potent at times, hasn’t been nearly explosive enough to overcome these deficits.
Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado continue to be reliable, but they aren’t superhuman. Jordan Walker is still developing, and while Masyn Winn and Brendan Donovan provide spark, they’re not enough to mask the avalanche of runs pouring in.
There’s simply no offense, no matter how well-constructed, that can play from behind almost every night and expect to survive.
The Trade Deadline Dilemma
All eyes now turn to the front office. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak faces a franchise-defining decision at the trade deadline. Do the Cardinals double down, trade prospects, and bring in reinforcements to salvage the season? Or do they wave the white flag and begin retooling for 2026?
There are no easy answers. Pitching help is scarce. The market is competitive. And the Cardinals farm system, while solid, lacks the blue-chip depth to land multiple elite arms.
The nightmare scenario? Standing pat, watching the team flounder through August, and ending up with neither playoff glory nor a refreshed farm.
Mozeliak has always favored a cautious approach, but this crisis demands clarity. And courage.
A Fanbase in Agony
For Cardinals fans, this season has felt like betrayal.
The team’s identity has always revolved around pride, preparation, and polish. They may not have always had the flashiest rosters, but the Redbirds have rarely been outclassed or outworked.
Now? They’re being pounded into the dirt before the anthem’s echoes fade.
And it’s personal. Fans have stuck through lean years. They supported Wainwright’s farewell tour. They bought into the promise of young arms. They believed.
But belief, like patience, has limits. And St. Louis is nearing the edge.
Hope or Hype?
Baseball has always been a game of redemption. One good stretch can flip a season. But the Cardinals are dangerously close to running out of time — and rope.
To reclaim legitimacy, they need more than a few good starts. They need a cultural reboot. Accountability in the clubhouse. Urgency in the front office. Fire on the field.
There’s still talent here. The division isn’t impenetrable. But without radical change, the only October this team will see is on vacation.
Because legitimate contenders don’t give up nine runs in the first three innings.
Legitimate contenders don’t wear their bullpen out by July.
And legitimate contenders — real ones — don’t settle for mediocrity draped in tradition.
Closing Line:
The Cardinals aren’t just fighting for playoff relevance. They’re fighting for the soul of their franchise. And right now, the scoreboard isn’t on their side.